Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Is a blue line shakeup the answer?
This time of year always brings a lot of trade chatter, as the deadline is fast approaching, and the teams with a shot at the playoffs are looking to BUY what they need to make a deep playoff run, and the teams without a shot are looking for ways to remake their club by moving higher priced players to contenders in return for younger players with more future upside. In general, blue liners are highly prized commodities at this time of year, and teams will sometimes overpay to get that prized defenseman they are missing. This puts the Penguins in an interesting position for many reasons. First, they are deep in blue liners, but many of them are very young, and will likely be part of the Penguins blue line in the future v next month. Next, the Penguins are somewhat cap strapped due to the cash that they have in their young core of the team, and two defensemen who were considered prize UFA pickups last summer. Finally, the Penguins have a young stud defenseman in Simon Despres, that the coaches are very high on, who has played well in a stretch with the big club this year. Add to that the fact the Penguins are looking to get a little bigger and a little tougher up and down the lineup to make a playoff run, and you have some interesting scenarios that could develop. At the focal point of what could be a big shakeup is the duo Martin and Michalek who combined take up 9M in cap space. A year ago, after a shaky start these two combined for 43 points and a +9 rating on the way to the Penguins earning 106 points, with the league's best penalty kill and the 6th ranked defense in the NHL, rarified air for the Penguins. This year has been a different story though. They are on pace for 39 combined points, only four fewer than last year's total but their combined +9 from last year is pacing to a combined -35 this year. Martin has one goal in 46 games and is -8, second worst on the team, only to Michalek's -11. They are also the two highest paid defenseman on the team at 5M for Martin and 4M for Michalek. Could the Penguins be willing to move Paul Martin at a time when defensemen are at a premium? Why not? Replacing Martin with Despres, thought risky based on experience, would not only give the Penguins a larger, more rugged player in Despres at 6'4" and 205 lbs., but it would offer them 4.16M in cap relief that could be used to add some size and scoring this year at the deadline and/or create room to sign James Neal to a long term deal. In 14 games this year, Despres has tallied one goal and three assists, while playing to a plus 4 and averaging over 14:30 in ice time. There is no way Despres is not on the team next year, and yes, there is risk in moving a veteran for the playoffs, but teams sometimes overpay at the deadline if they are in need of a puck moving defensman with a solid past that does not seem to fit this system. Hell, if you added Hal Gill to be the veteran, a hot and heavy rumor everywhere you look, you still get 2.5M in cap relief AND have a veteran with size and grit that has won a Stanley Cup with this team. I know first hand how Shero and Bylsma feel about Gill. He would also add some size and grit to the blue line of Pittsburgh. Another Shero favorite likely to be available at the deadline is Mark Eaton. He is UFA after this year and is earning 2.5M. He is another steady veteran that could be brought in if necessary if you moved Martin, Michalek or both at the deadline. Your top pairing could be Orpik/Letang, second pairing could be Gill/Michalek or Gill/Eaton,and third pairing could be Niskanen/Engelland or Lovejoy. You could also plug in Despres in either scenario on either the second or third pairing. Moving Martin and Michalek, while adding back either Gill or Eaton still saves you 7.5M in cap space, while adding a veteran player with a Stanley Cup history here, and the chance to enhance other positions along the lineup. Though not a big cap clearing move, Ben Lovejoy could be moved given the young capable players who could step up like Despres, Picard, Bortuzzo or Strait....and any one of them could be moved as well. Do not look to see Morrow, Harrington or Despres part of any deals from the Pens. The Penguins have some decisions to make, as only Despres can come up and down without clearing waivers. Moving Martin, Michalek or both are potential high risk, but possible high reward now, and certainly a good move relative to cap space for the next several seasons. I will be curious to see how much of a gambler RS is, but I for one would not be shocked if he pulled the trigger on a couple of moves that might shock some. Over the next couple of seasons, the Penguins will have to sign some core players up front, while they have quality young defenseman that are not only NHL ready, but signed to cap friendly entry level deals. Nine million dollars in an underperforming defense pairing is a luxury they cannot afford, whether it is addressed at the deadline, or over the summer, it will be addressed. Go Pens!
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