Two Weeks Notice

The upcoming two weeks for the Penguins reminds me of a nickname we had for my youngest daughter, "Two weeks notice." We called her that because it seemed like it took 2 weeks notice to have her complete ANY task at all. At any rate, two weeks notice here has a different meaning. Despite the fact that there are 4 weeks left in the NHL season, I believe that you will know what the Penguins playoff prospects are and where they will likely stand by the end of the 3/31 game against Tampa Bay. Here is why. As we go into today's play the Penguins stand 4th in the conference, but only 4 points behind Philadelphia, who now only has one game in hand. Philly plays tonight, and if they lose, they will have lost their game in hand, and Pittsburgh could close to within 2 points of the Flyers who are missing Chris Pronger, with a win tomorrow against the Rangers. Add to that, the fact that the Penguins play the Flyers twice in the next 8 days, and you can see the opportunity for the Penguins. In a best case scenario for Pittsburgh, those 2 games are an 8 point swing in the standings as the Penguins winning both in regulation get 4 points, and the Flyers lose the chance at 4 points. Washington also has the same 94 points as the Flyers, leading the Penguins by 4 points, but we have 2 games in hand on the Caps, who have been white hot. You would think they may be due to cool off a bit. The Penguins lead the Rangers by 10 points in the standings, so taking the 2 points tomorrow against them could really put the hurt on their chances of catching the Penguins in the Atlantic Division, as the Penguins have a game in hand on the Rags. Finally, Tampa trails Pittsburgh for the fourth spot in the conference by 2 points, but they play today and could draw even with Pittsburgh. It would appear that the Pens and Lightning will be neck and neck down the stretch, so that game on the 31st, and its possible 4 point swing, looms large in the playoff picture as well. With 4 of their next 7 games against teams clustered right around them in the standings, this stretch will likely tell you who the Penguins are right now, and how the playoff seedings will look. The Penguins magic number is 7 points for clinching a playoff spot. If the ninth place Hurricanes took EVERY single available point remaining they could land with 96 points maximum. They would have to win 10 straight games to achieve this, which is very unlikely. The Penguins who have 11 games remaining sit with 90 points. Even if the Canes win all 10 games, the Penguins still beat them by gaining 7 of the available 22 points remaining. Should make for a fun two weeks!

Adding to the intrigue, is the fact that the Penguins are getting "healthy." Funny to say that given the fact that they currently are without Crosby, Malkin, and Orpik among others, but here is where it gets interesting. The Penguins lineup in terms of forwards most recently was as follows:

Neal, Letestu, Kovalev

Kunitz, Staal, Kennedy

Cooke, Jeffrey, Dupuis

Rupp, Talbot, Adams

Injured players who should be returning in the next week or two include Arron Asham, Mike Comrie, Nick Johnson, and Eric Tangradi. Mark Letestu is now day to day with a shoulder injury. Chris Connor, a healthy scratch. So how do you configure your forward lineup? To me, I give Asham a shot. I know he has been like glass this year, and has not made the impact expected. I would give him a few games on that 3rd or 4th line to see what he can bring though. His 5 goals would project to 10 had he had been healthy thus far, and he can play a smart, physical, grinding game. He was very solid for Philly in a deep playoff run last season, and at his best is similar player to Matt Cooke. When Comrie came back, I would have to look at him also, as an offense starved team cannot afford to not look at all players who have some upside in that area. Comrie looked really good in the pre-season, prior to his hip injury. The problem becomes who do you sit? Production wise it would be Duper right now, but he plays a valuable role on the PK. Talbot and Comrie each play center, so do you sit Talbot for Comrie? Maybe. But Comrie would have to look dangerous in any "tryout" stretch prior to the playoffs, as Talbot has raised his game of late, and he also plays a big role on the PK. Dustin Jeffrey and Mark Letestu both would appear to have a long term future here, and have been productive, so it will be tough to move them from the lineup. They are both centers, but could each move to wing if they had to. Tyler Kennedy has been the Penguins most dangerous forward of late, and has great chemistry with Staal, so he will not be sitting any time soon. And in a best case scenario, Sidney Crosby could be a consideration IF the Penguins get to the second round of the playoffs. That would be a GREAT problem to have! Eric Tangradi and Nick Johnson, neither of whom can participate in the AHL playoffs are depth options coming back. Not a bad thing to have more NHL caliber forwards available to play. On defense, the pending return in a week or so of Brooks Orpik will force Bylsma to pick between Lovejoy or Engelland, both of whom have been very solid, to sit every night. If this team can avoid any other key losses, they are rounding into shape as a possibly dangerous team going into the post season. Not nearly the threat they would be with Malkin and Crosby, but a potential threat no less. The next two weeks will likely tell us how much of a threat.