Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Random Ramblings

With several days between games, and me in need of a break from some of the BS at work right now, I figured it might be time for some commentary so my vast following is not disappointed.  I have two topics on my mind right now.  The first of which is the pending return of one Sidney Crosby to the Penguins lineup, and the oddly negative reaction from many yinzers related to same.  There seems to be an odd resentment to the fact that Crosby has taken his good old time getting back to the lineup in an effort to not be drooling oatmeal into a cup by the age of 30.  Imagine the nerve of that guy!  You hear that Sid's done, he can't come back from those concussions......Well folks, the most recent opponent, the Boston Bruins have two players that accentuate why the yinzers might just be wrong. Exhibit A. Marc Savard, whose career was effectively ended by multiple concussions in his prime is an example of what the outcome can be if you rush back from these injuries.  I follow Savard on Twitter, and be assured, the thought of playing is not an issue as much as the thought of just having a string of normal days without headaches, dizziness or some other symptoms.  Exhibit B.  Patrice Bergeron, who sat out the better part of two seasons due to concussion symptoms only to return to be one of the more valuable components of the Stanley Cup run for Boston, and according to NESN broadcaster Jack Edwards, the MVP of the Bruins this season.  So, yinzer nation, take a breath and have some faith that Crosby/Shero and crew know what they are doing, and stop reacting to Crosby as if he is some sort of wimp.  I also hear consistently that they don't need him because of how well Geno is doing.  So, young male Pittsburghers, if Brooklyn Decker wanted to have a threesome with you and, say, Megan Fox, would you say no, because you already have Megan?  Listen, Malkin is the MVP of the league, and he has stepped up to cover for the loss of Crosby on more than one long stretch. In fact, the Penguins are now 60-32-9 in their last 101 games without Crosby.  But don't kid yourself, the Penguins are not likely to win the Cup without 87 in the lineup, and if you want to argue that, then you cannot argue that they are much MORE likely to do so WITH him in the lineup.  Malkin won the Conn Smythe during the 2009 Cup run, but Crosby had only one less point, and Crosby was huge in the Flyers series, and pretty much won the Capitals series. The playoffs are the classic war of attrition, and you want all hands on deck for that run!  Crosby's presence will present some tough personnel decisions, but those are generally good problems to have.  Knowing that this could change a lot based on situation, I would have my base four lines as follows upon Crosby's return.  Top line is Malkin centering Kunitz and Neal.  Why mess with success?  Second line is Crosby centering Sullivan and Dupuis. Dupuis and Crosby were 2/3 of the best line in hockey before Sid's concussion, and Sullivan is a nifty playmaker that should mesh with Crosby. The third line is Staal centering Cooke and Kennedy.  This line could be a difference maker match up wise.  You could also mix and match adding Staal to either of the top two lines to get a different look during the game, and dropping either Duper or Sully.  The fouth line to me is Vitale centering Adams and Asham.  Adams can play wing or center, and I like the grind level of Vitale.  The Defense is Letang, Martin, Orpik, Michalek, Engelland and Niskanen, with Lovejoy as the seventh.  The power play causes many issues, and I would personally keep the top unit intact, as it had been running 5th in the league, and create a solid two unit, even if I rotated which unit was one and which was two before I would change the chemistry and established roles on the top unit, but that will not happen, so no use talking about it.  Make no mistake, if the Penguins get Letang and Crosby back for the playoffs and they stay healthy, there is no team better equipped to win the Cup.  Nobody.

My second rambling involves another good issue which is what Jack Edwards from NESN called the Penguins "institutional depth," which is most apparent on the blue line.  The Penguins have 12 defensemen in the system who have played NHL level hockey with some degree of success, and two stud top 4 level prospects in Despres, who will be on the big club next year, and Harrington, likely to be ready the year after.  They also have three more steady bottom pairing NHL caliber prospects with upside who are NHL ready in Bortuzzo, Strait and Sneep.  They have Picard and Valabik who have played significant NHL games in other organizations, as well as Phil Samuellson and Alex Grant who is making a case that he can play at the top level.  You also have two players who make the most money on the blue line in Zybnek Michalek and Paul Martin who have underachieved most of the season.  That fact, along with pending contract needs for Staal and Crosby, along with a deep AHL field of defensemen led me to believe that Martin would be gone at the trade deadline.  I was wrong. Imagine that. Once Bylsma split the pairing of Martin and Michalek, the whole blue line has stabilized, and right now is a strength of the team.  I was still thinking that the NHL readiness of Strait and Despres would mean that Martin would likely be moved in the offseason to create cap space for other signings, and allowing Despres and or Strait to make the NHL team.  Upon further review, I think it might be Matt Niskanen who is the odd man out.  His development has been impressive for the Penguins, as he has rebounded from a poor year to log some of the most consistent minutes for Pittsburgh this year. He has for the most part been steady in his own end, and has added some offense as well.  Nisky has chipped in 4 goals and 16 assists, and played to a plus 9, giving him the third most points of any Penguins blue liner( only 2 less than Martin who is a minus player).  Niskanen is an RFA this year, making 1.5M per year, and there is no way he is looking to play for less than 2 to 3M, and the market for defenseman means he should be a valuable commodity.  A team like Pittsburgh, who is likely to be a favorite for the Cup again next year is not likely to trust younger players like Despres to a top 4 role, and they are loaded with young defenseman with more cap friendly deals, so Niskanen could be a guy who is expendable to give the Penguins one more year with experience in their top 4 (Orpik, Letang, Martin, Michelek), while making room for young, less expensive players like Despres, Strait, and Lovejoy.  I don't mention Engo, because at 560K for the next two years, and the physicla prescence to go along with steady play, he is in the bottom pairing either way.  By the end of next year, the Penguins would likey be ready to give Despres a shot at the top 4 if he is what they think he is, and they will likely need to make room for Scott Harrington at that point, making Martin very valuable trade bait to help restock the pond for the future, or to add some scoring up front.  If Niskanen is big down the stretch, and in the playoffs, big enough to earn top four confidence, then Martin could be sent in a deal to create cap space, moving Niskanen to the top four, and making room for Strait and Despres.  Lovejoy has also shown himself to be a strong 6th defensman, and at 525K could be an interesting piece to trade depending upon the organizations view of Strait and Bortuzzo.  The Penguins have Strait, Niskanen, Picard, Bortuzzo, and Valabik as RFA this offseason, all of whom will be looking for a chance in the next year or two to play at the NHL level.  This glut of talent on the blue line will allow Shero to keep the core together by infusing the lineup with entry level contracts each of the next two years to reduce the cap hit on the blue line, while not giving up quality.  I cannot wait to see how he uses that group to keep this team together and a legitimate threat to win the Cup for next several years to come.

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