Sunday, May 13, 2012

My take on the which of the three centers do we trade debate

The debate around the Penguins right now seems to be which of three big centers will have to b traded given the cap space issues and probable desire and availability of Staal to earn 6 to 7 milllion dollars per year AND be a key player on a team v a support type player.  The general consensus seems to be that the Penguins will move Staal as the other two have the ability to claim "best in show" on an annual basis.  That is more than true on both counts too.  However, if the talk is about the fact that the team cannot keep BOTH mega talents, then the consensus seems to be that Malkin is the guy to go.    The one thing that does not seem to be in play is the idea of Sidney Crosby being available should the Penguins have to abandon the three star center model.  Why?  Hey, if all else is equal relative to health, I think Crosby and Malkin are neck and neck in terms of who is the better player.  I give Geno the nod in pure talent, and I give Crosby the edge in the intangibles and "breathing the game" factor.  No argument can be made that those two are in a rarified air that cannot be breathed by many others including Jordan Staal.  That said, there is an argument to be made, particularly as I watch the current playoffs, that the type of game played by Jordan Staal is more complimentary to either Malkin or Crosby, and that the two of them create a redundancy that is great to have if you can, but not a luxury that can be afforded in the current cap situation.  I am a believer that Staal at 6.5M per year, at 24 years of age, with his size and two way play is a guy you want to keep.  I make a few arguments here.  First, his game translates well in the post season, an area of recent failure for the Penguins.  Second. the team has won to a level that kept them at the top of the league with Staal as the second line center while Crosby was out, AND 8.7 in cap space unable to be used for supporting cast.  Third, at 6.5M, Staal is 3 to 3.5M per year cheaper than either Malkin or Crosby will be, allowing you to add ANOTHER top quality ingredient to the mix with Staal v what you could do with Malkin or Crosby.  For example, the Penguins could have Staal and Luke Schenn for the cost of a Crosby.  You could have added Schenn and Kessel for argument sake to the lineup this past season for what an injured 87 took up in cap space. 
Fourth, we have seen first hand, that sometimes when you have two kings, you don't always get full value for both of them, as one is thinking the other may deliver.  You also have a specific issue on the power play on this team where it is better with one of the kings as opposed to both.  Real issues in a two king world.  We have seen it, in this case Geno seems to fall back a bit with a healthy Crosby.  I am not sure if the recent KHL announcement that salaries of returning NHL players will not count against the cap will make Geno a big target for the KHL to throw huge tax free dollars at in an attempt to lure a big whale to their league.  This could factor in to any decisions made though.
If all else were equal in the health department, I would keep Crosby and Staal, and try to get the Brinks truck to back up in return for Malkin.  Again, I LOVE Genos game, but if reality means you have to move one, if all were healthy that would be my inclination.  However, all have not been healthy.  Despite the fact that people say that all players are one hit away from having a concussion, the fact is that Crosby is more likely to sustain that injury based on recent history, AND the injury seems more likely to be longer term.  For that reason, on the surface, I favor keeping Malkin and Staal, and backing up the Brinks truck for the return Crosby would bring.  Again, the team was top 5 in the NHL playing without 87 much of the year, so they have PROVEN they can win without the Kid.  Add the bounty that would come back for 87 to the team that played last year, and you have one helluva team.  The real answer to me if you cannot keep all three though is one of the following.  Keep all three this summer, and see what the first half of next year brings.  Decide who if any you have to move in December, based on health, chemistry, etc.  If you cannnot wait, then you let the league know that you cannot keep all three of your centers, and that you are listening to offers for all three.  You then decide which offer is best for the team's short and long term ability to win the Stanley Cup. All three players are front line players, and losing any of them would make me ILL, as I have come to love all three of them.  If however, they cannot all be  kept, NONE of them are bigger than the franchise, and the one whose trade offer best positions the team to win over the longer run is the one who MUST be dealt.  That is true even that person is the guy who was supposed to be the face of the franchise and in fact, the league at one point.   Like this or not, but committing 10M per year to Crsoby will KILL this team if he cannot remain healthy enough to play most of the games under that contract.  Given recent history, a heavy long term deal for Crosby may carry high reward, but it also comes with high risk.  Eric Lindros, Marc Savard, and Keith Primeau are prime examples of careers cut short by repetitive head injuries.  Something to chew on.  I remain hopeful that all three are kept, and the team uses its youth on defense, and the movement of some other players to tweak its lineup for next year.  The only way to evaluate what is best for the TEAM is to evaluate what each of them would bring back in a trade if that is necessary, and picking the best scenario as a result of real offers.  Finally, a new development that has come into play that might make you think twice about the long term future of Russian or other Eastern European players is the fact that the cash rich KHL has now said the former NHL players will not count against the cap space if they are current stars.  What would Geno do if two years from now he was offered 20 Million per year TAX FREE to play in mother Russia, similar to what some team payed for an aging Jagr?   Could you blame him for leaving?  That has to at least be thought about in the equation until Malkin is locked up for a longer term.

No comments:

Post a Comment