Friday, May 4, 2012

Penguins face an off season of questions

I had planned a very long detailed post mortem of the Penguins season after their third straight early dismissal from the playoffs.  Then I made the mistake of watching other teams play the post season game, and truthfully for the first time in a LONG LONG time I was too pissed at my favorite team to put the time into a post as detailed as needed.  In fact, I had no interest in writing about them at all.  As you can see from the number of posts over the past three years, that is not the norm for me.  I have enjoyed watching almost every playoff game since the departure of the Penguins, and to my dismay, they looked like they played the 16th best as a team of the 16 playoff teams.  I can't think of too many Penguins player of coaches who lived up to expectations.  Staal did, other than his mis play on Voracek that ended up in the back of our net in Game One in OT, but he played his heart out and led the team with 6 goals and 9 points. I thought James Neal played a physical series, but lost his mind in game three.  The coaching was not up to par, Malkin and Crosby were adequate, but did not do anything to really take over a game and lead the Penguins. Fleury, despite 42 wins, and poor defensive play in front of him, was still VERY subpar for the third post season in a row. The league's third best penalty kill was atrocious   in the post season, allowing the Flyers to score on more than 50% of their power play chances.  The power play, allowed THREE shorthanded goals in the series. THREE.  At any rate, I am not going to get bogged down in the stats a bunch here.  I want to address in general the quandry of the Penguins in the offseason.  Many people think the Penguins need to blow up this core, as three straight post season departures, two of which ended in embarrassing performances to get eliminated means they cannot repeat the glory of 2009.  And you can make that argument.....SEE ABOVE....at the same time, this team weathered tons of injuries, played in the toughest division, and still put up 108 points this season, and have been an elite team since 2008 in the regular season.  If you look at that, a tweak here or there, and or some systems changes may get it done, right?  Some say Fleury has proven that the Cup was a fluke and that he is not the elite, franchise goaltender people say he is.  His past three post seasons make it pretty tough to argue that.  However, he has been to the finals twice, won a Cup and has been arguably the team's co-MVP each of the past two years during the regular season.  Is it that easy to decide he is NOT the guy?  I tend to think that the Penguins need to get a better back up, who can play more games, and push Fleury for ice time to get the MAF we all love to show up in the post season again.  The Penguins defense did not help Fleury either, and to me, Pittsburgh has to address that.  Of the 30 Flyers goals in the series, 20 were scored within 15 feet of the net.  That tells me that the blue line is too soft to clear that area.  If I am Mario and Ray Shero, I make Letang untouchable because he is a Norris caliber player, and I make Engelland untouchable because his cap hit of around 600K and his physical play make him a good value to Pittsburgh.  I would see if I could sign Niskanen for a reasonable number around 2.5M, and I bring Despres up.  I dump Martin for anything to anyone.  I listen to offers for Michalek, Orpik, and Lovejoy.  I try to get bigger and a little nastier on the backend.  I look to get a better backup for Fleury, and I try to add a little more sandpaper to the third and fourth lines.  Those are the easier decisions. The big question  seems to be centered around the 3 center model.  Popular belief is that the Penguins will trade Jordan Staal due to his value, and the fact that the two headed monster is so talented.  Further, pundits cite the fact that Staal could up to 7M per year, and would like to be a top 6 player, which he may not be here.  I would not trade Staal if the decision were mine.  I would do anything I could to keep him, selling him on opportunity here at 6M or 6.5M(dumping Martin and Z if necessary), make him a winger for Crosby or Malkin, and tell him with Crosby's head history, he will get lots of ice time as a second line center.  For some reason, it seems that there is no chance that either of the other two stars could be considered as the trade bait to add depth and grit to the team, and I think that is a shame.  Que the fan boys quoting how great 87 and 71 are, and how stupid I am.......all done?  I know how great both of them are.  I know that both will put up more offensive numbers.  I know that when healthy there is not a better player in the NHL than 87, and I know that one of the FEW who could challenge for that distinction is 71.  I get it.  I also know that Crosby or Malkin will likely get 10M or more per season, and I think Staal could get done for 6M, 6.5M at most.   That extra 3.5 to 4M could be one hell of an additional player like a top notch defenseman, or another winger to complement Staal and the remaining mega star.  In addition, if you put 10M into Crosby and he is hurt half of the year, you have hamstrung your team in an unbelievable way.  The team was a top threat all year long with Malkin and Staal as the top two centers  and the 8.7 in cap space for Crosby keeping them from adding anything else.  Can you imagine what the return would be on Crosby?  The Flyers added scoring depth, youth, cap space, and balance moving their captain and Jeff Carter this past summer.  If you added a solid back up goaltender, another big skilled winger, and an extra veteran defenseman to this team this season in Crosby's absence how good would they have been?  If you think Crosby is healthy, and you think Geno is an issue longer term, you have the same solid one -two punch AND a huge return to add to the core if you kept Crosby and moved Malkin.  I worry about the ability to get the max return on both kings in a two king world.  I love all three players (Crosby, Malkin, Staal), but if it were me, I would keep one of the kings with Staal, and move the other king to add more depth of scoring, and defense to this club.  That wont happen though, as I also recognize the risk in moving a player of the caliber of either Malkin or Crosby.  Watching these playoffs and seeing the success of the team with one or both kings out, I favor the idea of moving one of the mega stars and keeping Staal.  It will be interesting to see what the Penguins do.  Watch the above video, and then tell me if you are willing to listen to anything that means we don't ever hear or see this shit again in RD 1.

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