I am being asked by many friends, “How do you think the Penguins will do
this year?” A fair question, and one I
spent a lot of time this summer contemplating, even to the point of being glued
to my Twitter account on the beach in Kill Devil Hills at the beginning of free
agency. I was contemplating what the
loss of Staal, MIchalek, Asham and Sullivan would do to the team, along with
the additions of Sutter and Glass, while closely watching what the Flyers and
Rangers were doing. In all honesty, I
probably have not thought a bit about that since October until just this
morning (Sunday January 7th) when the news of the lockout ending hit the
internet. There are some questions that
remain unanswered that could alter my opinion of this, but with my faith in Ray
Shero along with the 9 million plus in
cap space available I will say that my opinion of the Penguins would likely
only improve based on that fact. There
are however, some things to consider when analyzing your feelings on where the
Penguins figure to land in the Atlantic Division, and Eastern Conference this
season. The first one that comes to mind
is which Penguins team will show up mentally?
The one that was one of the better defensive teams in the NHL for most
of the season and vying for the top penalty kill unit or the team that late in
the season and the playoffs seemed to forget how to play a solid defensive
system and melted down with regularity on the Penalty Kill? The Penguins finished with 108 points behind
only Vancouver, New York, and St. Louis last season, so they earned the right
to be considered a favorite to win the Stanley Cup, but the meltdown in the
defensive zone and in the net against Philadelphia was disturbing to
watch. The second question that is hard
to answer is how will the Penguins respond to what will be a more hectic, fast
paced all conference schedule where every game will have a four point swing on
the potential playoff positioning. How will their rivals respond to that same
issue? What impact will the loss of Steve
Sullivan on the power play unit have?
Can the coaching staff figure out a way to use Malkin and Crosby on the
power play in a way to maximize the effectiveness of each of them? Will we see a healthy Crosby perform at the
pre Winter Classic level in which he cut through the league like a hot knife
through butter? How will division rivals
respond to their own lineup changes? Can
Paul Martin respond to a subpar year with a bounce back season? Can Simon Despres step up and contribute to the
Penguins at the NHL level? Only time
will give us the answers to these questions, but all in all, I like the
Penguins’ chances to be a major threat to come out of this truncated season as
one of the elite teams fighting to take home the Stanley Cup for the following
reasons:
1. Strength down the middle-By all accounts
Crosby seems healthy and ready to make up for the loss of essentially two
seasons out of his prime due to injury and lockout. If that is true, there is no team in the NHL
who can match up down the middle with a healthy Sidney Crosby looking to regain
MVP form, and a healthy Malkin coming off an MVP season, where he scored 50
goals and 109 points. Yes, they lost
Staal, a great player by all accounts, but they picked up a classic third line
center in Brandon Sutter, who may not be as good as Staal is offensively, but
make no mistake, he scored 21 goals in his rookie campaign, and 17 last year so
he is not a kid without offensive ability.
Where he may actually be a plus is in the fact that he will relish his
role and responsibilities as a 3rd line center as opposed to chafing
at the loss of offensive output that role sometimes creates. In Carolina, he
got his points despite the fact that his main job was to shadow and shut down
the likes of Ovechkin, Stamkos, St. Louis, Malkin, and other top threats in the
Eastern Conference. He flourished in
that role, with Carolina giving up far fewer goals and shots when Sutter was on
the ice than when the team’s other centers were out there. In short he may make the TEAM stronger due to
role definition and balance. The
exception could be if one of the big two gets injured, Staal’s offensive upside
could be missed, but I am not sure Sutter does not have the ability to do more
in that area than he has shown thus far.
Craig Adams will provide his usual stellar work and veteran leadership
on the fourth line and the penalty kill unit.
2. Goaltending-The
Penguins have arguably the best goaltending tandem in the NHL with the addition
of Tomas Vokoun to complement Marc Andre Fleury. Fleury has not been stellar in the post
season since the magical 2009 run to the Cup, but he has had very good regular
seasons, short of a brutal start to the 2010 season. Many inside the Penguins organization felt
this was a direct result of wearing Fleury down during the regular season,
especially last year when Brent Johnson regressed to the point where he could
not be counted on much. Adding Vokoun, who actually has better lifetime statistics
than Fleury might be an even more astute pickup in a season where the teams are
likely to play more games per week in a hectic run for playoff
positioning. The Penguins can play
either one on any given night and feel like they have a game changer between
the pipes, a decided advantage over almost any other NHL team.
3. Scoring
Depth-Much is made of the Penguins supposed lack of balance in the top
six. Though I cannot say that I wouldn’t
like to see a big net crashing winger with some scoring touch added to the top
six, I hardly think the Penguins lack punch from the wings. James Neal had a breakout season and seemed
particularly comfortable playing with Evgeni Malkin to the tune of 40 goals and
81 points last year. Chris Kunitz is a
tough winger who goes to the corners to get the puck for his line-mates and he also chipped in 26 goals and 61 points last
year. Finally, despite the fact that he
may not be considered a prototypical first liner, Dupuis Pascal Dupuis added 25
goals and 59 points last season, and was part of the Crosby line when Sid was
destroying the league in 2010 prior to injury.
All of this was done minus the power play time usually seen by a top six
forward. The Penguins have the cap space
to add a solid scoring winger to that mix, and the assets with which to do it,
should they have trouble rounding out that top six from within.
4. Defense-There
are surely some question marks here, but I actually feel pretty good about this
unit assuming the top four of Orpik, Letang, Niskanen, and Martin stay healthy. I know.
Martin is public enemy number one here in Pittsburgh, and many would
like to see him bought out of his contract from what I read. I actually look for Martin to have a rebound
season this year. The guy was not one of the most coveted free agents on the
blue line in the summer of 2010 because he is a bad player. As a proud person, I am sure Martin is
looking to atone for a subpar season. I
think Martin will rebound and give the Pens a very solid top four along with Orpik, Letang, and Niskanen. I look for Despres to step up and be able to
give the Penguins solid minutes along with Engelland, and believe that Bortuzzo
and Strait, when he gets healthy, along with Dylan Reese give the Pens enviable
NHL ready depth on the blue line. And again, there is significant cap space and
a wealth of young assets to plug in any gaps as they become apparent.
5. Management
and Coaching-The Penguins have been disappointing in the post season for three
years now. One of those years, 2011 they
were so injury riddled it would be unfair to judge them on, but last year in
particular was alarming. However, the
Penguins have a great ownership group, GM and coaching staff. I think that one of the major holes was
addressed with the addition of Vokoun to the goaltending tandem. Getting Sutter, Dumoulin and Pouliot in
return for a Staal who was not coming back after this year, I think solidified
the balance at center ice and created cap space and depth at a coveted position
that will allow Shero to add a couple of pieces to the puzzle that will make
the Penguins even stronger. In fact with
Despres, Morrow, Harrington, Dumoulin, Poulitiot, Maatta, Strait, Bortuzzo,
Sneep, Samuelsson, and Resse, Mr. Shero
has amassed a wealth of young assets at the blueline, a position that generally for him has netted
huge returns a a la Whitney for Kunitz and Tangradi, and Goligoski for Neal and
Niskanen. I look for one of these assets
to net the top six winger or solid veteran NHL stay at home defenseman to complete the puzzle
for Pittsburgh.
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