The Penguins and Flyers and their collective fan bases hate each other, and have for years. I happen to have several good friends who root whole heartedly for the enemy, and couple that with the fact that the Flyers have slipped to a tie for 3rd/4th on my hate meter, I decided to do some comparisons of the current teams. If the Flyers advance to the Finals this season, as would be my prediction CURRENTLY, these two teams will have represented the Eastern Conference in each of the past 4 seasons! I am pulling hard for the Pens to get healthy and make a run, Boston is making major moves to improve, and the Craps think they have something going, but if I were forced to bet on the conference, it would be on the Flyers. They have as deep and balanced a group of top 9 forwards as I have seen in the salary cap era, so they create match up issues all game long. Their 4th line is good enough, and during the playoffs will see minimal minutes given the strength of the top 9. They can roll three very good defensive pairings this year, which should save some wear and tear on Pronger as the team gets deeper into the playoffs. It appeared that Pronger had run out of gas by the time the Finals rolled around, and that helped Chicago finally wear that defense down. If the Flyers have a potential achilles heel that could show in the playoffs, it is the lack of proven big time goaltending, though Bobrovsky has been good thus far. Three lines that can all score, three great D pairings led by Pronger, Timonen, and Meszaros, how do you beat this team? Well let's see how the teams are doing this year in the major categories, knowing that the Flyers have two games in hand on the Penguins:
Philadelphia is second in the NHL in points with 81, the Penguins are tied for 3rd with 76. Philadelphia is 17.5% on the power play, the Penguins are 16.5%. The Flyers are third in goals scored with 188, and the Pens are 8th with 172. The teams are tied in goals against with 141, but Philadelphias average per game is slightly higher (2.47 GPG v 2.39 GPG for the Pens due to the games in hand). Pittsburgh leads the league in penalty kill at 87.5%, while Philadelphia kills penalties at the rate of 85.8%. The Penguins surprisingly lead the league in penalty minutes at 1122, while Philadelphia has 811 penalty minutes. If you factor in the man games lost this season, particuarly by Crosby, and to a lesser extent Malkin, I think one could argue that if all else were equal health wise, these two teams would be the odds on favorites again in the East, and would likely only lose to each other. The statistics are that close, and frankly I am proud that the Pens are still in this neighborhood statistically given the two games in New York where they surrendered 14 goals, and the calamity the Pens have had on the injury front. Again, only 2 games this season with Staal, Malkin, and Crosby on the ice together, or actually 4 periods. They are now missing 4 of the organizations top centers, and its top scoring winger. Now for how they spend their money to build two premiere Eastern Conference franchises over the past half decade or so. Both teams are right against the cap right now. The Penguins have 28.35M tied up in their top 6 forwards, while the Flyers have 26.55. Interestingly enough, the Flyers pay about the same for Briere, Richards, and Carter, as the Penguins pay for Crosby and Malkin. The Flyers have gotten 101 goals and 240 points from those top 6 forwards, and the Penguins have only gotten 91 goals and 208 points from their top 6. I think the Penguins would be ahead in this top 6 if Crosby had not missed 18 games, Geno 15 games and Staal 37 games. The production for the Flyers is very evenly allocated, and the Pens would be very much loaded to Crosby and Malkin, with Kunitz a nice third. Staal would likely be in the Kunitz range over a full season. The two star model won the Pens a Cup two years ago, but you can see how it hurts when you lose one or two players here. The Flyers have their risk spread out more amongst their top 6 most expensive forwards. I will say that the forward model for the Penguins can work IF Staal or Malkin could be productive on a wing for each other. I actually expected to shoot holes in the Pens model, but actually I think I am proving that BOTH models work in a normal year relative to man games lost. I have to believe that if the Flyers lost 70 man games out of their top 3 forwards that a similar affect would show on the team. The Flyers have 23.7M into their 7 NHL defensemen, with 15.2 of it into Timonen, Pronger and Meszaros. The Penguins have 19.2M into their defense, with 12.75 of it into Martin, Michalek and Orpik. The Penguins have two of their top 5 scorers on the blueline, Letang with 45 points, and Goligoski with 31 points. The Flyers leading scorer from the blue line is Kimo Timonen, which is only 8th on the team with 27 points. Since the Penguins and Flyers have very similar goals against statistics and the Penguins blueline has more points, the Penguins defense is better, right? Well, maybe not. The other area of comparsion is goaltending, with the Pens investing 5.6M into the position, 5M on Fleury and 600K on Johnson, while the Flyers only have 2.675 into this position, with Bobrovsky taking up 1.75M and Boucher at 925K. They are getting strikingly similar numbers from their starters in this area as well, with Fleury posting 27 wins v Bobrosky posting 23, Fleury posting a 2.29 GAA and Bob posting a 2.42, and each having a .920 save percentage. If you look at defense and goaltending as a single source of cap space the Flyers have 26.3M into the combined area, and the Penguins have 24.75M. If you look at the whole, the biggest area of difference is guys like Giroux and Leino both of whom make under 1M, contributing 19 goals and 52 points in the case of Giroux and 13 goals and 39 points for Leino. That is VALUE at the price folks.
Philadelphia is second in the NHL in points with 81, the Penguins are tied for 3rd with 76. Philadelphia is 17.5% on the power play, the Penguins are 16.5%. The Flyers are third in goals scored with 188, and the Pens are 8th with 172. The teams are tied in goals against with 141, but Philadelphias average per game is slightly higher (2.47 GPG v 2.39 GPG for the Pens due to the games in hand). Pittsburgh leads the league in penalty kill at 87.5%, while Philadelphia kills penalties at the rate of 85.8%. The Penguins surprisingly lead the league in penalty minutes at 1122, while Philadelphia has 811 penalty minutes. If you factor in the man games lost this season, particuarly by Crosby, and to a lesser extent Malkin, I think one could argue that if all else were equal health wise, these two teams would be the odds on favorites again in the East, and would likely only lose to each other. The statistics are that close, and frankly I am proud that the Pens are still in this neighborhood statistically given the two games in New York where they surrendered 14 goals, and the calamity the Pens have had on the injury front. Again, only 2 games this season with Staal, Malkin, and Crosby on the ice together, or actually 4 periods. They are now missing 4 of the organizations top centers, and its top scoring winger. Now for how they spend their money to build two premiere Eastern Conference franchises over the past half decade or so. Both teams are right against the cap right now. The Penguins have 28.35M tied up in their top 6 forwards, while the Flyers have 26.55. Interestingly enough, the Flyers pay about the same for Briere, Richards, and Carter, as the Penguins pay for Crosby and Malkin. The Flyers have gotten 101 goals and 240 points from those top 6 forwards, and the Penguins have only gotten 91 goals and 208 points from their top 6. I think the Penguins would be ahead in this top 6 if Crosby had not missed 18 games, Geno 15 games and Staal 37 games. The production for the Flyers is very evenly allocated, and the Pens would be very much loaded to Crosby and Malkin, with Kunitz a nice third. Staal would likely be in the Kunitz range over a full season. The two star model won the Pens a Cup two years ago, but you can see how it hurts when you lose one or two players here. The Flyers have their risk spread out more amongst their top 6 most expensive forwards. I will say that the forward model for the Penguins can work IF Staal or Malkin could be productive on a wing for each other. I actually expected to shoot holes in the Pens model, but actually I think I am proving that BOTH models work in a normal year relative to man games lost. I have to believe that if the Flyers lost 70 man games out of their top 3 forwards that a similar affect would show on the team. The Flyers have 23.7M into their 7 NHL defensemen, with 15.2 of it into Timonen, Pronger and Meszaros. The Penguins have 19.2M into their defense, with 12.75 of it into Martin, Michalek and Orpik. The Penguins have two of their top 5 scorers on the blueline, Letang with 45 points, and Goligoski with 31 points. The Flyers leading scorer from the blue line is Kimo Timonen, which is only 8th on the team with 27 points. Since the Penguins and Flyers have very similar goals against statistics and the Penguins blueline has more points, the Penguins defense is better, right? Well, maybe not. The other area of comparsion is goaltending, with the Pens investing 5.6M into the position, 5M on Fleury and 600K on Johnson, while the Flyers only have 2.675 into this position, with Bobrovsky taking up 1.75M and Boucher at 925K. They are getting strikingly similar numbers from their starters in this area as well, with Fleury posting 27 wins v Bobrosky posting 23, Fleury posting a 2.29 GAA and Bob posting a 2.42, and each having a .920 save percentage. If you look at defense and goaltending as a single source of cap space the Flyers have 26.3M into the combined area, and the Penguins have 24.75M. If you look at the whole, the biggest area of difference is guys like Giroux and Leino both of whom make under 1M, contributing 19 goals and 52 points in the case of Giroux and 13 goals and 39 points for Leino. That is VALUE at the price folks.
So what does this all mean? Damned if I know, but I find it interesting. I will take a poke anyway. I started this odyssey thinking I was going to make a case that the Penguins model may need to be changed vis a vis the money into the top players. And I am still thinking the Penguins could do more with the 8.7 they have into the Geno we have seen the past two years, BUT I think the conclusion I came around to is this. I think the Penguins IF the hockey gods had left both teams fairly healthy in key positions are slightly better based on the standings, and key statistics within the context of the big three for the Pens only playing 4 periods together this year. But it is by a hair, and injuries are part of the game, so it is what its. I really like the Flyers to come out of the Eastern Conference this spring. I also thought the organizations constructed two great teams very differently, and I think that though there are differences, the teams are more similar than I thought, but different in how they get there. They are similar in that:
They both have a lot of key players that were drafted by the team and stayed over the long run-Flyers have Richards, Carter, JVR, Coburn, Giroux. The Penguins have Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury, Orpik, Letang, Talbot;
They have a similar amount of money into their top 6 forwards;
They both use their AHL club to stock their NHL club effectively;
They have strong ownership, an effective, intelligent GM, and an excellent head coach;
Their first round draft picks over the past several years are the cornerstones of the team;
Both teams have a deep farm system;
They are different in the following ways;
The Penguin have a forward group with 3-4 big scorers, (20+) goals over a full season, and a good sized group of scorers with 12-15 potential. The Flyers have about 6-7 guys with 20+ potential, a good core of 10+ scorers, but nobody with HIGH HIGH end potential of Crosby and Malkin;
The Penguins generate a lot more points off of the blueline;
The Penguins system is full of defeneman, with 5 of the 7 on the blueline being home grown (Martin and Michalek the exceptions), while the Flyers ony have Coburn straight up from their system;
The Penguins have put big money into a franchise type goaltender, the Flyers have not;
The Penguins have not been able to develop or find inexpensive top level scoring, while the Flyers have with Giroux and Leino(these two will make the cap situation/structure interesting next year as Giroux's cap hit goes from 800K to 3.75M and Leino is a UFA who will command much more than the 850K he currently earns0;
My conclusion, is that despite our rivalry, we have two of the elite teams in the league over the past several years, both positioned to remain so, who are more similar than either fan base realizes. I think it is very likely that these two teams will indeed be in the Finals each of the past four years, and champs two of the four. I think both are set up to remain a big threat for the upcoming seasons as well. I will await the trade deadline to come and go before I say which one comes out of the East. A great rivalry either way.
No comments:
Post a Comment