The Eastern Conference top 10 at the Olympic break:
WASH 90 points after 62 games
NJD 77 points after 61 games
OTT 76 points after 63 games but NE Division leader
PITT 76 points after 62 games 1 point off of Atlantic leader
BUFF 75 points after 60 games
PHIL 67 points after 60 games
BOST 65 points after 60 games
MONT 64 points after 63 games
TBL 63 points after 61 games
NYR 63 points after 60 games
Analysis: The Penguins are sitting in a good position if they can have a good stretch run. The key to the Penguins would be to catch the Devils and win the Atlantic Divsion, as Divisonal leaders are guaranteed a top 3 seed regardless of points. If the Pens can catch the Devils they will be either a two or three seed in the conference, with home ice and more favorable round one match up. If they cannot win the division, they are in a dogfight for seeding with Buffalo, Ottawa, Philadelphia, and Boston. If the Pens fade a bit, they will add NYR and Montreal to that list of teams. The Pens have 2 head to head games with NJ and one with Philadelphia, all three of which are very big post break games.......sweeping the NJD remaining games will bode well for their divisional title hopes, losing both would probably kill that dream. Taking the 4 pt swing in the Philadelphia game would be a big move in the race with Philly as the darkhorse for the division. Head to head wins against the Rangers could bury them in the Atlantic.
The Penguins are a distant second out of 10 in Goals for with 195, behind Washinton (247) and followed by Philadelphia at 179 and Ottawa at 178. But in Goals against the Pens are tied for next to last with Ottawa at 179 with only Tampa worse out of the top 10 teams with 182. New Jersey is best with 144, then Buffalo at 152, Boston at 154, and Philadelphia at 160. The Pens are fourth out of 10 in goal differential at plus 16, with Washington by far the best at plus 70, then Philadelphia at plus 19 and New Jersey at plus 18. Buffalo is plus 14. If you take the Caps out the mix, numbers 2-5 are bunched between plus 14 and plus 19 in goal differential.
Analysis: The Penguins are in second in goals for amongst eastern conference teams and next to last out of the group in goals against meaning they need to play better team defense, play better in goal, backcheck better, and/or add a stay at home defenseman to the mix. A note on the goal scoring is that 79 out of the 195 goals have come from their top three CENTERS or 41%. Only 43 goals have come from the 4 wingers that have spent the bulk of their season on the wing for the top 2 lines or 22%. The third line wingers Kennedy and Cooke have chipped in 21 more for 11% of the production. So the first and second line wingers are not outproducing the third liners if you take into account there are 4 of them v 2. Not a good sign for the top lines' wingers. The goal scoring overall is not an issue, BUT there is not enough production from the top wingers on the team meaning that adding a solid scoring winger would be great to add balance. Finally the scoring from the D has been a bit disappointing with only 25 total goals, 8 from Gonch, 6 from Goligoski, (all before Christmas), 3 each from Letang, Eaton, and Skoula, and one each from Orpik and McKee. The Pens need more offense from Gonchar, Goligoski and Letang. Finally, Malkin has to play the stretch like he is one the top 5 players in the league.
The Pens are tied for third out of the top 10 in wins with 36. Washinton is first with 41, followed by New Jersey with 37, then Ottawa/Pittsburgh with 36. Tampa has the least wins in the group with 26 followed by Boston with 27.
The faceoff win percentages is so tight that the differentials are not huge with 3% being the split between 1st and 10th. The Pens are kind of in the middle at 7th at 49%.
The next area is power play with Pens 9th out of 10 at 16.5%, with only Ottawa worse out of the group at 16.1%. Washington is first at 25.6%, Montreal second at 24.6%, and Philadelphia is third at 21.8%. The Penguins are tied for 4th out of ten in penalty killing with Ottawa at 83.3%. Buffalo is tops at 86.5%, followed by Boston at 86% and New York at 84.6%.
Anaylsis: The Penguins are being hurt and losing points directly due to the fact that their PP is bad. The numbers do not lie. Being next to last in PP out of the top 10 is not a good sign for a team with Cup aspirations. What makes this more disturbing, is that the Pens have as much or more talent to apply to the power play than anbody but Washington, yet it fails consistently. They play too fancy and do not get enough dirty PP goals despite knowing this. Mike Yeo coaches the D (8th of 10 playoff contenders in the East), and the power play (9th of those same 10), so you cannot help but begin to wonder if Bylsma will ever address this......and yes, it is up to the players to play, but SOMEBODY in charge needs to get their attention so that they actually DO it.
My overall analysis is that the Washington Capitals are far and away the best team in the conference during the regular season. After that, the conference is pretty competitive and any one of the about 6 other teams could make a big run in the East dependent upon health, deadline moves and momentum out of the Olympic break. With the history of the Caps in the post season they could be knocked off, especially given the fact that I think the parade route is already being planned! The bad news for the Pens is that they are pretty far DOWN the list of those teams in key areas such as goals against and power play, but in that fact is the good news. Despite subpar performances from Geno, Fleury, Gonchar, Goligoski and Letang, as well as a horrible power play the Pens are fourth in the conference and one point off of leading their division. Also, the answers to their issues are already on the team, IF they decide to focus there game. If nothing else happens good or bad, the Pens will be better if Malkin and Fleury elevate their games as they usually do for the key stretch run. Every year post lock out the Penguins have played their best hockey late in the season, and I am hopeful that this trend will continue. This team needs to forecheck aggressively, get the puck behind the opponents D and punish them when they turn to get it, clog up the neutral zone, play more responsibly in their zone to have the success they had last year. Luckily, they have most of the same components that they had last year, so it should not be unrealistic to expect the focus of the stretch run would bring this about. Having a healthy Kunitz for the top line adds some snarl to that line, as well as forecheck and puck possession. Finally, the Pens have the assets in the organization to bring in one more defensive defenseman, and a mid range top 6 winger. If you add those two components to the leadership and experience of this team, they SHOULD be a force. Could we be lucky enough to experience the deep playoff runs we have seen the past two years? Time will tell.
WASH 90 points after 62 games
NJD 77 points after 61 games
OTT 76 points after 63 games but NE Division leader
PITT 76 points after 62 games 1 point off of Atlantic leader
BUFF 75 points after 60 games
PHIL 67 points after 60 games
BOST 65 points after 60 games
MONT 64 points after 63 games
TBL 63 points after 61 games
NYR 63 points after 60 games
Analysis: The Penguins are sitting in a good position if they can have a good stretch run. The key to the Penguins would be to catch the Devils and win the Atlantic Divsion, as Divisonal leaders are guaranteed a top 3 seed regardless of points. If the Pens can catch the Devils they will be either a two or three seed in the conference, with home ice and more favorable round one match up. If they cannot win the division, they are in a dogfight for seeding with Buffalo, Ottawa, Philadelphia, and Boston. If the Pens fade a bit, they will add NYR and Montreal to that list of teams. The Pens have 2 head to head games with NJ and one with Philadelphia, all three of which are very big post break games.......sweeping the NJD remaining games will bode well for their divisional title hopes, losing both would probably kill that dream. Taking the 4 pt swing in the Philadelphia game would be a big move in the race with Philly as the darkhorse for the division. Head to head wins against the Rangers could bury them in the Atlantic.
The Penguins are a distant second out of 10 in Goals for with 195, behind Washinton (247) and followed by Philadelphia at 179 and Ottawa at 178. But in Goals against the Pens are tied for next to last with Ottawa at 179 with only Tampa worse out of the top 10 teams with 182. New Jersey is best with 144, then Buffalo at 152, Boston at 154, and Philadelphia at 160. The Pens are fourth out of 10 in goal differential at plus 16, with Washington by far the best at plus 70, then Philadelphia at plus 19 and New Jersey at plus 18. Buffalo is plus 14. If you take the Caps out the mix, numbers 2-5 are bunched between plus 14 and plus 19 in goal differential.
Analysis: The Penguins are in second in goals for amongst eastern conference teams and next to last out of the group in goals against meaning they need to play better team defense, play better in goal, backcheck better, and/or add a stay at home defenseman to the mix. A note on the goal scoring is that 79 out of the 195 goals have come from their top three CENTERS or 41%. Only 43 goals have come from the 4 wingers that have spent the bulk of their season on the wing for the top 2 lines or 22%. The third line wingers Kennedy and Cooke have chipped in 21 more for 11% of the production. So the first and second line wingers are not outproducing the third liners if you take into account there are 4 of them v 2. Not a good sign for the top lines' wingers. The goal scoring overall is not an issue, BUT there is not enough production from the top wingers on the team meaning that adding a solid scoring winger would be great to add balance. Finally the scoring from the D has been a bit disappointing with only 25 total goals, 8 from Gonch, 6 from Goligoski, (all before Christmas), 3 each from Letang, Eaton, and Skoula, and one each from Orpik and McKee. The Pens need more offense from Gonchar, Goligoski and Letang. Finally, Malkin has to play the stretch like he is one the top 5 players in the league.
The Pens are tied for third out of the top 10 in wins with 36. Washinton is first with 41, followed by New Jersey with 37, then Ottawa/Pittsburgh with 36. Tampa has the least wins in the group with 26 followed by Boston with 27.
The faceoff win percentages is so tight that the differentials are not huge with 3% being the split between 1st and 10th. The Pens are kind of in the middle at 7th at 49%.
The next area is power play with Pens 9th out of 10 at 16.5%, with only Ottawa worse out of the group at 16.1%. Washington is first at 25.6%, Montreal second at 24.6%, and Philadelphia is third at 21.8%. The Penguins are tied for 4th out of ten in penalty killing with Ottawa at 83.3%. Buffalo is tops at 86.5%, followed by Boston at 86% and New York at 84.6%.
Anaylsis: The Penguins are being hurt and losing points directly due to the fact that their PP is bad. The numbers do not lie. Being next to last in PP out of the top 10 is not a good sign for a team with Cup aspirations. What makes this more disturbing, is that the Pens have as much or more talent to apply to the power play than anbody but Washington, yet it fails consistently. They play too fancy and do not get enough dirty PP goals despite knowing this. Mike Yeo coaches the D (8th of 10 playoff contenders in the East), and the power play (9th of those same 10), so you cannot help but begin to wonder if Bylsma will ever address this......and yes, it is up to the players to play, but SOMEBODY in charge needs to get their attention so that they actually DO it.
My overall analysis is that the Washington Capitals are far and away the best team in the conference during the regular season. After that, the conference is pretty competitive and any one of the about 6 other teams could make a big run in the East dependent upon health, deadline moves and momentum out of the Olympic break. With the history of the Caps in the post season they could be knocked off, especially given the fact that I think the parade route is already being planned! The bad news for the Pens is that they are pretty far DOWN the list of those teams in key areas such as goals against and power play, but in that fact is the good news. Despite subpar performances from Geno, Fleury, Gonchar, Goligoski and Letang, as well as a horrible power play the Pens are fourth in the conference and one point off of leading their division. Also, the answers to their issues are already on the team, IF they decide to focus there game. If nothing else happens good or bad, the Pens will be better if Malkin and Fleury elevate their games as they usually do for the key stretch run. Every year post lock out the Penguins have played their best hockey late in the season, and I am hopeful that this trend will continue. This team needs to forecheck aggressively, get the puck behind the opponents D and punish them when they turn to get it, clog up the neutral zone, play more responsibly in their zone to have the success they had last year. Luckily, they have most of the same components that they had last year, so it should not be unrealistic to expect the focus of the stretch run would bring this about. Having a healthy Kunitz for the top line adds some snarl to that line, as well as forecheck and puck possession. Finally, the Pens have the assets in the organization to bring in one more defensive defenseman, and a mid range top 6 winger. If you add those two components to the leadership and experience of this team, they SHOULD be a force. Could we be lucky enough to experience the deep playoff runs we have seen the past two years? Time will tell.
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