Draft week catch up

With the NHL  draft just 5 days away in the City of Pittsburgh, I figured I would try to catch up on some of the things I am hearing, right, wrong, or indifferent.  First, the Penguins will draft 22nd in the annual player lottery, and your guess is as good as mine what direction they will take with that pick.  Many are saying that other than Bennett and Kuehnackl, the cupboard is bare for top flight forwards in the system, BUT the Penguins always take the guy that they think is the best player available, and despite the logjam at defense in the system, if a defenseman is the best player available, the Penguins will take him for two reasons.  First, it is their philosophy and a good one at that. Second, and related to the first, is that depth on one side of the puck can equate to talent on the other when needed.  If you look at the top six forwards on the team, the two best wingers came in trades the Pens could make due to defensive depth.  First, Chris Kunitz (along with prospect Eric Tangradi)  came to Pittsburgh for the 2009 Cup run, when Ray Shero moved Ryan Whitney to Anaheim to add grit and scoring up front, and depth in the system.  A great move for Pittsburgh, and only made due to the depth on defense.  Then, in 2010, the Penguins added 40 goal winger James Neal, and one of last year's best young defensemen in Matt Niskanen in return for Alex Goligoski. In the past three years Whitney and  Goligoski net Kunitz, Neal, Tangradi, and Niskanen?  Yeah, an overload in one area, can lead to quality in the other.  Also, this year, you have  RFA Niskanen the Penguins could lose, and both Bortuzzo and Strait, two NHL ready players who are eligible to have to clear waivers (they won't) if sent back to Wilkes Barre.  You also have trade bait on defense in Paul Martin, who does not seem to fit here, and Ben Lovejoy., who is a decent 6th or 7th defensemen, but might not have the ceiling of Bortuzzo or Strait.  In short, the Penguins will NEED to move some assets on defense to A. get bigger and tougher, and B. avoid losing quality assets for no return.  I hear and agree that the Penguins want to sign Niskanen to a multi-year deal if they can get him at 2.5M per year or so.  I also hear that people are freaking because Ray Shero is giving Paul Martin higher marks than we do, and may look for a current asset in return for any trade involving Martin.  Some also say that Shero is loath to trade Martin, though there is a market for him contrary to the popular belief of local talking heads as it may send a bad message to future UFA's if Pittsburgh moves a man in year two of a five year deal who could have gotten more elsewhere.  I say that Shero is a good businessman who knows there is a market for Martin, and he is playing his cards to maximize the potential return the Pens get for Martin.  I look for Pittsburgh to sign Niskanen, and move Martin, along with Lovejoy, Bortuzzo. or Strait, if not two of those three.  Even if the Penguins move Martin, their CURRENT top six defense would seem to be Letang, Orpik, Niskanen(they will sign him), Michalek, Engelland(too tough and cap friendly), and Despres(dont think you can keep him in the AHL any longer).  Their seventh defenseman would be between Bortuzzo, Strait, Lovejoy, Picard, Morrow, and Harrington.  This is without adding a big tough defenseman in a trade to strengthen the defense.   Morrow and Harrington are believed to be top four quality, so if they are moved it is for a big time asset, while the others need to be used or lost, so look for some movement on the blue line here.

I wrote a couple of weeks back that the Penguins needed to do 4 things to bring the cup back to Pittsburgh next year.  First, they need to get back to a more defensive mindset when their forecheck and puck possession game is not getting it done for them, and that starts with the coaching staff.  Second, they have done already.  I noted that a rested Fleury, and a challlenged Fleury is the best Fleury, and the Penguins needed a top notch back up to do both, and in comes Tomas Vokoun.  Item 2, check.  I also noted that the Penguins had a logjam of speedy, finesse type defensemen, and needed another big physical player to complement their puck movers.  I look for Martin to be moved, along with at least one of the youner players to create this cap space and roster room here.  Finally, I said that their bottom six needed to get bigger and tougher to play against, and I look for moves to address that in the offseason.  I am hearing that there is interest in Travis Moen if he remains UFA,  He is 6-2 amd 220 lbs, and a strong bottom six player.  There is also some interest in Daniel Winnick of Anaheim at 6-2 and 215 lbs.   The Penguins could also give RFA prospect Eric Tangradi at 6-4 and 220 lbs a real look on the third and fourth line.  I do not see Richard Park coming back to this team.  Finally, a move that brought in a top six type player could drop Dupuis  back to the third line, making a player like Kennedy or Cooke trade bait for Pittsburgh.  I am not sure of the scenariio that Shero will use, but I do think he will get bigger and nastier on our bottom six forwards, and at defense.

Some interesting trade rumors abound relative to Pittsburgh as well.  One that is popular is the "salary swap" move for both Tampa and Pittsburgh, with Martin at 5M for three more years going to Tampa, and Malone at 4.5M and 2 more years coming back to Pittsburgh.   I would not hate this move, as Malone put home 20 goals last year in 68 games for a bad Tampa team (but he was -11), he would offer a net front presence and toughness for Pittsburgh, and possibly allow for Dupuis to move back down to the third line.  It also opens up 500K in cap space, and reduces the commitment of Pittsburgh by a year as well.  This move does not address the stay at home defense issue for Pittsburgh, but might make 2M more open up with TK as trade bait to address the stay at home issue on defense.  I think Pittsburgh would like to use the Martin deal to open up more space for a better defenseman, but this deal is not bad.

Jordan Staal, with only one year left on his deal, a large raise in order, and the choice to stay 3rd line here, or play out of position at wing is the source of the biggest trade rumors.  I have noted in the past, that I think that Staal is the type of player Pittsburgh needs in the post season to win the Cup, but what to do with him is the single biggest issue for Pittsburgh. If you keep Staal, and move him to the top six as a winger, you STILL need a 3rd line center, and the team really does not have a big third line center if you move Staal up.  Many think that Staal will WANT to move on, and if so, the Penguins may get offered something that they cannot pass up.  Several teams are said to have interest in Staal, and one is Carolina, where Staal's brother Eric a centerpiece of their team.  To me the Penguins NEED BOTH Brandon Sutter, a young quality 3rd line center, and Carolina's 8th pick to even think of this move.  Toronto is supposed to covet Staal, and have been linked to moving young nasty defenseman Luke Schenn and top winger prospect Nazrim Kadri and another asset for Staal.  I like the thought of a large tough defenseman coming back, but we would still need a center.  Burke is also a big supporter of Paul Martin as well.  A package deal that sends Staal and Martin to the Leafs and got back Schenn, Tyler Bozak, Kadri, and either a pick or big faceoff winning line four center David Steckel would intrigue me.  Schenn and Bozak make the team bigger on defense and keeps the team strong down the middle, adding Steckel and or Kadri give the Penguins many other options.  I don't like either of these moves as it leaves Staal in the Eastern Conference, but both moves have value IF Staal HAS to move.  There are two teams rumored in the West that I know about that intrigue me, including the Minnesota Wild and Chicago Blackhawks.  With Minnesota GM Chuck Fletcher getting his start as Assistant GM under Ray Shero, and the Wild being in the Western Conference, they make interesting dance partners who are supposed to be highly interested in Jordan Staal.  The assets that interest me the most there include center Cal Clutterbuck, who is a 213 lb tough customer who would look good on our third line, and winger Devon Setoguchi whom I think would score 25-30 goals on the wing of Crosby or Malkin.  Finally, the Wild have the 7th pick in the draft, high enough to get a young player who could make an impact in the next year or so.  If Chuck wants Staal, there are some real assets to work with here.  Finally, the Blackhawks are rumored to willing to part with their tough third line center Dave Bolland (19 goals), top prospect Brandon Saad (Pittsburgh kid and winger) and either young puck moving defenseman Nick Leddy (34 A) or big rangy stay at homer Niklas Hjalmarsson in return for Staal.  Leddy is redundant, but could be significant trade bait for other assets, and Bolland would look great as a gritty third liner here.  Saad, being local, looks like a kid ready to play in the NHL. The Hawks pick 18th in the first round, only four picks before Pittsburgh.  I do however, again like the balance for Pittsburgh, and the western conference for Staal if this has to happen.

The Penguins have lots of assets, lots of options, and a solid team that underachieved in the post season last year.  They have been installed already as favorites to  win the 2013 Stanley Cup by Las Vegas at 7/1 odds, ahead of current Stanley Cup winner Los Angeles at 11/1.  The Penguins need to make the right moves to make that prediction ring true.  To do so, they still need size and toughness on the bottom six and blueline, but possess the ability to get that.   In Shero I trust!