I am a huge fan of Jordan Staal's. He was one of my favorite players on the Penguins, a rare combination of size and skill, who was just beginning to get comfortable with the offensive capabilities he possessed. I had really never imagined a scenario in which the Penguins did not have Staal on the PK, or available to replace Malkin or Crosby if injured. June 22nd, 2012 changed all of that when Ray Shero was forced to trade Staal when the young cetner iceman turned down a 60 million dollar contract extension over 10 years. He was headed to the last year of his 4M per year deal, and Shero had two choices. Hope that Staal's obvious need to get out from under the shadow cast by Malkin and Crosby would not be a distraction, and hope that the three center model would win him another Stanley Cup before Staal, a valuable asset walked away for nothing via free agency. Lack of a Cup that only one of 30 teams will win would make that a big gamble, and one that Shero decided not to take when he pulled the trigger on a deal that sent Staal to Carolina to unite with his brother Eric in return for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and the 8th overall pick in the draft which became Derrick Pouliot. A lot of my friends texted me and asked if Staal was worth more than that, and did the Penguins make a mistake with this deal. My emphatic answer despite my feelings about Staal, was NO, the Penguins did not make a mistake. I will give you a summary of why they did not, and then I will tell you more about each player the Pens got back for back up. First off, we all know about Staal. Second overall pick in the 2006 draft, youngest player to score on a penalty shot, youngest to record a hat trick, most short handed goals by a rookie (7), momentum turning goal in 2009 SCF, and 25 goals and 50 point in just 62 games last season. As I said, Staal is a horse who would be the second line center in just about any other situation, with definite first line skills on some teams.
So, what did we get back in return for this dynamic player? As noted above, Brandon Sutter was the centerpiece of the deal that Shero had to have in order to make this happen. What about this Sutter guy? Well folks, Brandon Sutter is not chopped liver. Sutter has played three full NHL seasons, and in those seasons he has put up 21, 14, and 17 goals. Not Staal's numbers, but not bad at all for a third line center on an average to poor team. Last year Staal had 50 points in 62 games and Sutter had 32 points in 82 games. Staal is a superior offensive player at this point in his career. But think about this when you consider Sutter as his replacement as the third line center for Pittsburgh. First, he is enough of a leader that he wore the A as assistant captain for the Hurricanes at the ripe old age of 21. He was also the 11th overall pick in the draft the year he came out. He is a big player also at 6'3" tall and 185 pounds. Sutter was a better defensive player than Staal, with the Canes giving up less than 2 goals per 60 minutes of Sutter ice team at even strength, while Pittsburgh gave up 2.83 goals in the same time frame. Another complicated formula that rated 221 forwards over the past three years on goals against every 20 minutes, and several other factors rated Sutter the 7th best forward of 221 with 2000+ minutes of even strength ice time over the past three years. SEVENTH of 221. Staal was ranked 91st in the same poll. Also, Sutter led the Hurricanes in blocked shots last season with 85, while Adams led Pittsburgh with 45, and Staal had 23 blocked shots. Sutter had three times the blocked shots than Staal. Geno led the Penguins in takeaways at 53, while Sutter had nine more than Geno with 61 takeaways. Sutter was the man the Hurricanes relied on to take big defensive zone draws, with him winning 654 faceoffs or 50.5%, while Staal won about the same at 51%.
As I chewed on the above information, and weighed the postion Shero was in, I marvel at the fact that we got Brandon Sutter as the centerpiece of a deal coming back. Hey, Staal is the better player, and surely he is better offensively, but Sutter may be the better FIT. Staal was miscast as a third line center, and would have to play out of position at wing to be in the top six, while Sutter is the perfect complement to Malkin and Crosby. Sutter also ranked higher in general defense, blocked shots and takeaways than Staal. Sutter also has not seen the ceiling to his development at the ripe old age of 22 either. And there are a few more things to consider also. Sutter will save Pittsburgh about 2M in cap space this year as opposed to Staal and 4-5M next season based on Staal's anticipated contract. That money along with the other two assets that came back in this trade will go towards Pittsburgh filling other gaps on the team. Sutter is then only an RFA v UFA, so Pittsburgh will remain in control of keeping Sutter for the long term. Head to head Carolina got the better player, but Pittsburgh got a better fit at a lower cap hit, AND two other valuable assets in Brian Dumoulin and Derrick Pouliot. Here is a little bit about those two players.
Brian Dumoulin is a 6'4" and 210 pound two way defenseman drafted in the 2nd round of last year's draft, 51st overall. He won the 2009-2010 NCAA championship at Boston College and last year won Best Defenseman in Hockey East, East First Team All-Star, Frozen Four Tournament Team, NCAA First Team All-American. He was a plus 90 during his Boston College career. NHL scouts have said, "he's a huge asset to their organization," "he is one of the best college defensement in the country," he is a complete 2 way defenseman with great poise with the puck, strong skating ability, and he's really progressed rapidly due to great coaching." Finally, some scouts compare the type of game he plays to that of Gary Suter, and many think he will be NHL ready after one season in Wilkes Barre Scranton, in other words for the 2013-14 season. Dumoulin is a big time player, who has played in big time competition and won. He is also a very big player.
Derrick Pouliot is a 5'11" and 185 pound offensive defenseman who played for the Portland Winterhawks this past season, and was the 8th pick of this year's draft. NHL Central Scouting had him ranked as the 12th best North American skater, as did Red Line Report. The Hockey News had him as the 13th best prospect in this draft. Pouliot who played on Portland with Penguins prospect Scott Harrington, was a big part of the offensive point production on the blue line for Portland who went to the Finals. NHL scouts say that "he is an effective puck handler who can carry the puck up the ice." Further they say that "he is an 18 year old who has a crisp pass and a deceptively powerful shot from the point." He is also known as a great skater who draws the opponent to him, and is projected to be a top four defenseman with lots of power play potential in this league. His game is compared to Brian Campbell of the NHL.
In short, if you factor in the fact that Staal's decision to turn down 60M made it obvious Pittsburgh was going to lose him one way or ther other, with the quality of player Sutter is, the extra cap space, and the value of Domoulin and Pouliot as part of a young defensive corps in a couple of years, or as key pieces in additional trades, Shero made lemonade out of the lemons dealt to him this past June. Hey, I already noted that I was and remain a big fan of Staal and his game. I also generally subscribe to the adage that the team who gets the best player in the trade wins the trade. The more I chew on this trade, the better I feel about it. Staal IS better than Sutter overall as a player, BUT Sutter may be better defensively (which the Pens needed most), and he saves a lot of cap space that can be put toward replacing that missing offense or adding more defense. In addition, Sutter played with Nodl and Dwyer last season, so the combination of third pairings he will see and the upgrade in wingers assuming it is Kennedy and Cooke, you can feel good about Sutter's chances to break 20 goals. If that is the third line next year, you will pay the ENTIRE LINE what Staal TURNED DOWN to be a Penguins. Also, you have to factor in the meaning of Pouliot and Dumoulin to this team. The Penguins now have SEVEN former first or second round picks in their stockpile of young defensemen! I think their presence opens up options for Shero to move some of that DEEP stockpile of young defensemen to bring back another key asset for Pittsburgh i.e. Goligoski for Neal/Niskanen and Whitney for Kunitz/Tangradi. I will miss Jordan Staal, but I think Sutter and the other people who join the Pens due to cap space and asset trading will make me feel a lot better before all of the dust settles!
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