Penguins needs in offseason? TEAM DEFENSE

A lot of speculation is out there with regard to what the Penguins should, could, and will do during this offseason to get back on the track of a team that is looking to put multiple Stanley Cups on their mantle with this core of young guns.  A lot of people still speak of another winger (for Sid of course), and it still seems like you hear a lot about offensive firepower when people speak of the Penguins' needs. When you hear of the team having to move one of their top three centers, you hear mostly of Staal because Crosby (when healthy) key word there, is the best player in the world, and in his absence this season, Malkin filled that role, at least during the regular season.  Not as much during the post season, where his awesome regular season, along with Crosby's was bested on the Penguins by the aforementioned Staal, and during our series, all players were blown away by the play of Claude Giroux.  I am no GM, but I am a rabid fan, and the numbers support the fact that Pittsburgh has PLENTY of offense for today's game, but is lacking in the concept of team defense.  That starts on the blue line where two notable pieces missing from that championship team are Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi.  When I had the chance to ask Ray Shero and Dan Bylsma which players lost to free agency and or trades they missed the  most, they both answered immediately that it was Scuderi and Gill.   They did so at the same time and without hesitation.  The Pens are also missing the veteran presence of Billy Guerin from the Cup run, and Gary Roberts from the run to the Finals in 2008.  The maturity of either player in this locker room may have had a postive impact when the team lost its defensive presence, late in the year in favor or run and gun hockey.   After a review of the numbers, the Penguins need to find a way to play more defense as a team.  That may start by going a bit away from their current MO of only coveting puck moving blue liners in the pursuit of some stay at home solid defensemen such as Scuderi or Gill.  Moving Martin would be a key to that kind of player coming in.  They also could use a look at their bottom 6 forwards for more a bit more grit and defensive play.  Finally, a solid back up who could give Fleury a rest, as the past three playoff runs have not been as kind to Fleury as the two trips to the Finals is a must.  Fatigue could have been a factor this season as Fleury appeared in 67 games this year, starting in 64 of those.  He did post 42 wins and a  2.36 GAA and .913 save percentage.  However, in the playoffs, his numbers were the worst in the league outside of goaltenders who played one game or less.  His bloated GAA was 4.63 and his save percentage was a league worst .834.   Fleury was simply put, awful in these playoffs, as was the defense in front of him.  Conversely, in 2007-08 Fleury had a 1.97 GAA and .933 save percentage, and in the Cup winning year of 2008-09 he had a 2.61 GAA and a .908 save percentage.  These numbers were much better than those posted in this year's playoffs.  If you compare Fleury's statistics to those of the Final Four goaltenders this season you have Quick at number One in GAA at 1.44 AND save percentage at .947, Brodeur at 5th in GAA at 2.00 and 7th in save percentage at .924, Lundqvuist is second in save percentage at 1.82 and 5th in save percentage at .931, with Mike Smith at 4th in GAA at 1.99, and 2nd in save percentage at .944.  Goaltending statistics are a combination of the goaltender and the team in front of him, so both need to be much better if the Penguins expect to compete for another Cup. 

Some other reasons I think the Penguins need to look at team defense, including the system potentially, along with an upgrade behind Fleury, include the following:  First when you compare the top 5 goal scorers of Pittsburgh against the top 5 for the two teams who made the Finals, Pittsburgh's top 5 provided 166 goals, while the top 5 for NJ provided 145 goals, and for the LAK, only 108 goals.  Pittsburgh's list did not inlude a full season from Crosby either.  Neither the Kings or Devils had a player with 40 goals, much less 50, while Pittsburgh had Malkin with 50 goals and Neal with 40.  Pittsburgh's top 5 snipers without Crosby had 21 more goals than the Devils top snipers and 58 more than the top 5 for the Kings!  Yet those two play for the Cup, and the Penguins have been idle for several weeks.  The lists are as follows:

Pittsburgh: Malkin (50), Neal (40),Kunitz (26), Dupuis (25), and Staal (25);
New Jersey: Kovalchuk (37),Parise (31),Clarkson (30),Elias (26),Sykora (21);
Los Angeles: Kopitar (25), Williams (22), Brown (22), Carter (21),Richards (18);

The next thing I compared was Pittsburgh's team goals against and goals for during the regular season and playoffs against those same statistics for the four teams who made the Conference Finals for both the East and the West.  First in the regular season, as far as Goals Against Average, the Penguins were 15th in the league, giving up an average of 2.66 goals per game.  The Kings were 2nd in the league with a 2.07 goals per game given up, while Phoenix was 5th giving up 2.37 goals per game.  In the East Finals, the Rangers were 3rd during the regular season giving up an average of 2.22 goals per game, and Cup Finalist New Jersey was 10th, giving up 2.50 goals per game.  If you take those same statistics for the playoffs, Pittsburgh was LAST in giving up 5 goals per game during their 6 games played.  The Kings, are the best thus far, giving up only 1.50 goals per game in their 16 games played, while New Jersey was 8th, giving up 2.30 goals per game in their 20 games played.  While the Conference runners up in the East, New York Rangers, were third in the post season giving up 2.05 goals per game in their 20 games played, and Western Conference runners up, Phoenix, was 6th in the post season, giving up 2.19 goals in their 16 games played!  Pittsburgh gave up MORE THAN TWICE the goals per game of the worst placed team in that category who made the Final Four, that being the Devils at 2.30 goals per game.  Goals against was the key factor to Pittsburgh going home, while all four of the remaining teams were at least in the top half of the playoff field, with LA first and the Rangers third!

When you look at Pittsburgh's goals for in comparison to the four finalists in the NHL this year during the regular season it is just as noticeable as the goals against.  Pittsburgh was first in the regular season in goals for at 3.33 goals for per game.  The Devils were 15th at 2.63 goals for per game, and the Kings were 29th at 2.29 goals for per game!  Yet, they play for the right to hoist the Stanley Cup!   The respective conference runners up were the Rangers, 11th in the league at 2.71 goals for per game, and Phoenix was 18th at 2.56 goals for per game.  There was not a single Final Four team who made the top ten in goals for during the regular season!  Pittsburgh scored .70 goals per game more than the 15th place Devils and 1.04 goals more per game than the Kings!  Yet, the Penguins were gone in the first round, and one of these teams will hoist the Cup.  The tune did not change in the post season, where Pittsburgh is again, at this point in the playoffs, first in goals for per game at 4.33 goals for per game in 6 games played.  Now your two finalists are closer in terms of postioning.    This starts at 3rd for the Kings with 2.81 goals for per game in 16 games played, and the Devils are 4th with 2.65 goals for per game in their 20 played games.  Phoenix was 6th out of 16 with 2.31 goals for per game in their 16 games played, while the Rangers were 9th, or below the middle of the pack with 2.15 goals per game in their 20 games played.  Again, Pittsburgh is home, while these teams made it to the Final Four.  Another interesting item for Pittsburgh to consider is their PK, which finished 3rd in the regular season at 87.8%, while falling to 47.8% in a complete post season collapse.  The situation for Pittsburgh is complicated, as they did better in the key defensive categories, PRIOR to the return of Crosby this season. This is not an indictment of Crosby, as much as it is an indictment of the mind-set and leadership of the group.  The team became enamored with their run and gun offense, and with success, but they forgot all about team defense, with break down after breakdown in the defensive zone, combined with porous netminding and penalty kill.  As I read this, and look at the statistics of the Penguins in comparison to the teams who made the final cut this year, it looks to me like the issues are obvious.

1. Mindset-Whether it is coaching, team concept, or leadership in the group, it is obvious that the team excelled offensively in both the regular season, and the post season at the expense down the stretch of defense.  Team defense must be stressed, and if it takes bringing in a Guerin type again to complement the young guns, then let's look to see who is out there that can provide this type of leadership.  It also says to me, again that Jordan Staal, a big defensive center with offensive upside is NOT somebody you move regardless of the otheworldly offensive talent the Penguins have at center.
2. Goaltending-Fleury is a young player with a trip to the Finals and a Stanley Cup ring, but his play the past three seasons in the playoffs has been less than stellar.  If you think fatigue is part of the issue, then the Penguins HAVE to get a backup goaltender who can play 25 games, and win for Pittsburgh.  If you are in the group who thinks Fleury cannot get the job done( I am not), then the problem is much larger!
3. Blueline-Pittsburgh has big money tied up in Paul Martin and Zybnek Michalek (9M combined annually) and neither has lived up to potential as "shutdown" players.  Move Martin at all costs and bring in a shutdown player with the money freed up.  The Penguins have plenty of puck movers, and are short on tough, shut down defensemen.  Evaluate the tread left on Orpik's tires and see how Despres and the young guns on the blue line fit in.  Michalek's shot blocking skills and lower salary make him easier to keep if you are Pittsburgh;
4. Bottom  Six forwards-evaluate if you are big enough, gritty enough, and hard enough to play against in your bottom six.  Do you have enough character guys ala Max Talbot and Mike Rupp there?  If not, evaluate what is available, and look at players like Park, Cooke, Tangradi, Kennedy and Adams to see if a change or two is warranted.

With the cap looking like it is going up, you don't have to move Staal, especially if you move Martin.  I think you try to sign Staal as soon as you can, and use the Martin money to free up cap space for other needs, and look for the cap to go up.  With that Martin money, and cap growth, you add a top line backup goaltender, and a tough defenseman.  You can evaluate the health of Crosby, the signability of Malkin in two years with the KHL pressure, and use the first half of the season to see where the chips fall relative to the three centers.  If you move any of the three, you better get a huge return, that addresses your defensive depth up the middle, your defensive strength on the blue line, and some young talent up front still on entry level contracts., ala the Chicago and Toronto trade rumors for Staal.  If you have to do it, maybe you make your dance partner take on Martin too.

 This team has the ability to win the Stanley Cup in 2012-13 with a few tweaks and the moving of Martin, as long as they recognize the need to play a more systmatic defense in addition to their forecheck, and give Fleury the kind of back up that keeps him fresh.