Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Rumored Staal trade examined more closely

First off, as of today, Ray Shero is still telling teams that inquire about Jordan Staal that the Penguins hope to resign him, and that further, he is not on the market for a trade.  He also states that Staal has not indicated a desire to be moved.  And I still hope that he is not moved.  I do wonder however, if Staal will want to remain the third line center, or a winger in the top six while playing in the shadows of Malkin and Crosby?  Or will he want to go somewhere to be one of the "Aces?"  If he is traded or moved up to the wing on the Malkin or Crosby line, the Penguins are badly in need of a third line center, and could revisit some targets they were after at the deadline.  If they trade Staal, the big one that is out there as a rumor from Rob Rossi is the Hurricanes offering Brandon Sutter, the 8th overall pick of the draft and either young defensive prospect Ryan Murphy or young defensive prospect Justin Faulk.  It is also rumored that the Canes who are way under the cap are willing to take on the contract of Paul Martin as part of this deal.  The deal is a bit intriguing, as I think the Penguins could get more still and move the Martin contract.  The intriguing part to me is the following:



Brandon Sutter is a young center who at 22 years old already has 3 NHL seasons under his belt and has scored 21, 14, and 17 goals on a bad hockey club. He has also been durable, missing 10 games his first season, and none in the following two.  He has decent size at 6'3" tall and 185 pounds, and is a prototypical third line center for Pittsburgh.  He is signed for two years at a hair over 2M per season, and then he is only an RFA.  Those terms offer Pittsburgh an effective and cost effective solution for their third line center position;



Justin Faulk is a very young US born defenseman who at the age of 20, has already completed a season in the NHL, and is currently listed on the top pairing of Carolina.  Faulk had 8 goals and 14 assists in 66 games, and played to a minus 16 in his first year.  He has good size at 6'0" and 205 lbs on a stocky frame, but is agile and skates well according to scouting reports. He possesses a big shot from the point, and as a college and US development team prospect graded out as top 4 NHL potential.  He was picked in the 2010 entry draft, in the second round at 37th overall. Pretty good pedigree and a year of NHL experience under his belt.  Further, Faulk is signed for two more years at 900K per year, and then is ONLY an RFA.  I like that he can skate in our system and adds size and physicality, as well as a good shot from the point;



Ryan Murphy is a young phenom coming from the Kitchener Rangers who was picked 12th overall in the 2011 draft.  He is a little smaller than Faulk at 5'11" and only 176 lbs, but Don Cherry felt he was good enough to be picked first overall last year. His Kitchener coach, Steve Spott said, "He's like no one else in the league. You can't get to him, you can't hit him.  He's a kid that's slippery, his vision is second to none, his hockey sense is second to none.  He can skate and he's got a rocket."  He is an offensive dynmao logging 79 points in 63 games with Kitchener before getting drafted.  He had 26G and 35 A.  This kid is higher risk and higher reward than Faulk, but to me Faulk is more what the Penguins need. He is also a bit more costly than Faulk at 1.344M per year for three more years before becoming RFA.  He is only 19 years old;



The Hurricanes are also adding the 8th overall pick in the draft to the deal according to rumors.  This is a pick that is high enough to add an impact player for Pittsburgh, or can be used as trade bait to get a current player that fits their needs.  The Penguins already own the 22nd pick in the draft.



Here is what is intriguing to me, a guy who really covets Staal, by the way.  Staal remains the best player in this deal, and that hurts, BUT here are some interesting tidbits. If you take Faulk, Sutter, and the 8th pick, I think you can still get more in return, especially adding Martin as rumored. As it stands, if the Canes take Staal and Martin, the Penguins move 9M in current cap value, and more like 11M or more in cap value after next year, and if they go with Faulk who fits better  than Murphy they only bring back just under 3M in salary.   Those salaries are locked in for 2 more seasons, then both players are only RFA.  This gives them 6M in extra cap space to add other parts to their team, and more assets to move.  Shero said he is likely to move 2 defensemen or defensive prospects due to a glut of talent and waiver issues.  The addition of Faulk makes another defenseman available and gives the Pens 6M in cap space to add wingers or go after Parise, or Suter?  What if the Oilers covet Faulk or Murphy?  Would one of them, the 8th pick and 22nd pick be enough for the Pens to get the rights to Yakupov?  Or the 8th, 22nd, and one of our good defensive prospects?   How good would Yakupov look with Malkin?  The thought of getting a quality 3rd line center, and the assets and cap space to make serious improvements to other parts of the roster including the blue line is intriguing to me IF we have to lose a player like Staal.  On top of that, I think the Pens could get a bit more to make the deal, if they were interested. Interesting SPECULATION.  I hope more details on the supposed pieces has some value to you.

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