Monday, June 25, 2012

Slow your roll on Parise/Suter?

I have been out of town since Thursday and officially on vacation as of yesterday, but like all Penguins fans, I have been on the edge of my seat dissecting all of the reasons why Zach Parise would want to be a Penguin, and why he MIGHT take less than full market value to do so.  I have done much of the same relative to Gary Suter, and have even gone nuts thinking of having them BOTH land here.  After way too much refection for a guy who is in the Outer Banks, I think I have modified my opinion and wish list.  First, lets look at Parise. He is an unreal talent, one of my favorite non-Penguins in the NHL.  He missed most of last season, but this season he scored 31 goals and 69 points, while putting up 38 goals/82 points and 45 goals/94 points two and three years ago.  Dynamic offensive output, and he would give the Pens two top lines of Crosby, Parise, and Dupuis, along with Malkin, Neal, and Kunitz, pretty much a nightmare matchup issue for any opposing head coach!  Add to that, Parise as UFA comes to Pittsburgh if they get him, without the Penguins giving up assets!  Wow!  And hey, he goes to a team where he can win the Cup, and he is a winger for friend and all world center Sidney Crosby!  He plays for player friendly and offensive minded coach Dan Bylsma too!  Sounds great, right?  On the other hand, Parise is from Minnesota, and his home town team is 20M under the cap, and has their sights set squarely on Parise.  What if they offer him 9-10M for a long term deal?  The Red Wings are also about 20M under the cap, and have Parise in their sights, among other teams. The Penguins to me cannot afford to go more than 7M per year, and need to keep the term to 5 years or under in my opinion with Letang due for a raise, along with Malkin in two years.   I truly get the excitement and temptation to go after the 5'11" 195 lb. scoring dynamo, but I worry about the likley cost of doing so, as well as the competition to do so.



 To me, I am intrigued by the need for Anaheim to move Bobby Ryan, and wonder if that is not the better long term move for Pittsburgh.  First, Ryan is a big player at 6'2" and 210 lbs, and that would keep in line with the desire for Pittsburgh to be bigger and tougher up front.  And folks, Ryan is no scoring slouch, scoring 31, 35, 34, and 31 goals respectively in the four years he has played a full season in Anaheim.  Ryan has notched 30+ goals every full season in the NHL, so he truly is a sniper of the highest order.  Better still is the fact that Ryan is signed for 3 more years at a reasonable, James Nealesque 5.1M per year.  That would leave 2M per year over what I think the Parise cost would be, minimum.  The question is what would it take to get him?  As I look at the Ducks' roster, they are short on defensemen, having only five players signed at the NHL level on the blueline, and three of them only have a single season left to boot.  The players are Francois Beauchemin, Toni Lydman, Luca Sbisa, Cam Fowler, and Nate Guenin.  It would seem that they need some defensemen, and guess what?  The Penguins are looking to move a defenseman who was one of the most sought after UFA defensemen two years ago in Paul Martin.  They also seem willing to move impact defenseman Simon Despres who would seem to be NHL ready, playing solid minutes in Pittsburgh last season, and he should be a top four pairing  player in the next year or two.  He is signed to an entry level contract at 840K per year for the next two seasons, and then is only RFA.  I would hate to lose Despres, but he may be the odd man out given the glut of depth on defense for Pittsburgh, and the use it or lose it status of Bortuzzo and Strait, along with the impact of Morrow, who almost made the big club last season.  Add Harrington, Sneep, Samuelsson, and the three blue chip prospects added Friday, and the Pens can afford to move the assets required to get Ryan.  This move at this point is basically break even for Pittsburgh (Martin/Despres for Ryan), leaving the remaining cap space available to address the blue line.  If you need to add another asset to the mix, perhaps they look at the 2M in Tyler Kennedy to add to the mix, giving them 8M to play with to improve the team.


Now, onto Gary Suter.   He surely is a super star defenseman, who has had 30 plus assists in each of his past four seasons in Nashville, and has been near the top of the charts in hits, blocked shots and plus minus ratings.  He is a guy you would LOVE to have on your team also.  Again, my concern is two fold.  First, he will be the most sought after defenseman in free agency, he has openly stated his desire to stay in the Western Conference, and he is the top target of the Red Wings who are short two of their top four defensemen in Niklas Lidstrom and Brad Stuart.  With 20M in cap space, I cannot imagine the Wings not landing Suter given all of the above.  To me, for Pittsburgh to pry him away from the top Western Conference teams will take big money, and long term, which would seem unnecessary given the depth on defense for the Penguins.  I know that the window for Pittsburgh is now, but there are reasonable defensemen available through free agency who may be able to fill the needs of the Penguins for far less.  One notable UFA is Bryan Allen, who at 6'5" and 226 lbs is the big physical blue line presence the Penguins are lacking, and he adds blocked shots, takeaways, and strong zone coverage to the mix as well.  Two ex-Penguins who won a Cup here are also available as well in big Hal Gill and steady Mark Eaton.  Both players were in the mid 2 million range, and could be solid players for Pittsburgh along with Allen if they want to keep some veteran presence at a reasonable price to a blue line that could compete for the Cup. I am not claiming that these players are the same talent as Suter, but merely that the necessary improvments to the blue line could come without creating such stress on the rest of the financial needs of the team.


In addition to the rumored discussions with Phoenix about Keith Yandle, signed for four years at 5.25M, Shero is talking to both Tampa and Nashville about possible trades involving Martin.  Tampa has only four NHL defensemen signed, one of which is Marc Bergevin, who is old and tiny, so Martin  may make sense here.  An asset that they have that could be of interest to Pittsburgh is RW Teddy Purcell at 6'2" and 201 lbs.  He is signed for 2.362M for another year and had 24 goals and 65 points last season.  Intriguing to me, as Purcell is a solid upgrade to our top six, with a good price, and would not require the movment of Despres.  It would also be a savings of about 2.6M in cap space should it happen.  I am not a fan of taking on the Malone contract in return for Martin.  My point is that with both Suter and Parise there is a large amount of money and term necessary to get either or both players, and there are trade options available to save the team money over the long run.  I am not saying I would NOT like to see either or both players here, but I think they are longer shots, especially Suter, than we may think.  I also think that there are other options like Ryan that merit consideration.  We have an interesting week or two ahead of us!


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